Bright spots in Latin America despite global economic uncertainty

There are bright spots as Latin American and Caribbean economies begin the year but the uncertain health of the U.S. economy, the lingering financial crisis in Europe and more sluggish growth in China are casting shadows over the region.

A decade ago, dim prospects in those major markets would have delivered a knock-out punch in the region, but this year Latin American and Caribbean economies are expected to grow by 3.5 percent and average 3.9 percent growth in 2014 and 2015, according to a World Bank forecast. The United Nations’ Economic Commission has a slightly more sanguine forecast of 3.8 percent growth in 2013.

Both are better than the 2.4 percent growth the World Bank is forecasting for the global economy and the mere 1.3 percent increase it is predicting for high-income countries.

The U.S. economy grew by 2.2 percent in 2012. But the economy shrank 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of 2013 also could be sluggish..

“That creates a soggy start for 2013 in Latin America,’’ said David Malpass, president of Encima Global, a New York economic consulting and research firm.

With a recession in Japan, even slower growth expected in Europe than in the United States, and questions about whether the dip in the Chinese economy has bottomed out and whether the United States will be making sharp cuts in defense spending and other federal programs come March 1, Latin American and Caribbean nations can’t really depend on the industrialized world to spur growth.

The region must look inward and undertake structural reforms that will allow growth from domestic factors, said Malpass, who was in Miami in January for an event organized by the University of Miami’s Center for Hemispheric Policy.

Panama’s $5.25 billion investment in expansion of the Panama Canal is an example of the inward focus that will pay off down the road, said Malpass. By 2015, Panama plans to have completed two new sets of locks on the Atlantic and Pacific sides of the canal and the deepening and widening of existing channels to accommodate the so-called Post-Panamax ships too big to traverse the current locks.

“It’s a difficult period but a period where developing countries are growing solidly but not as quickly as they might otherwise want to,’’ said Andrew Burns, the lead author of the World Bank’s annual Global Economic Trends report.

That means they should focus on investment in infrastructure and healthcare, structural policies, regulatory reforms and improvements in governance that will pay future dividends down the road, Burns said.

Such economic reforms, plus high commodity prices enjoyed by countries with fertile fields and mineral wealth, helped the region move beyond the global financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 far more quickly than it did when it was so dependent on economic cycles in the rest of the world.

Economic growth slowed in Latin America and the Caribbean from 4.3 percent in 2011 to an estimated 3 percent but that was still better than the 1.3 percent growth high-income countries managed in 2012, according to The World Bank.

China will continue to play a major role in Latin America and the Caribbean this year but whether the slowdown in China has reached its low point is subject to debate. But it’s relative. Slow growth in China would be brisk growth elsewhere. China says its gross domestic product grew 7.8 percent in 2012, the most tepid growth in 13 years and a comedown from 9.3 percent growth in 2011.

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Insane City: Read excerpt from Dave Barry’s new book

After a block and a half they came to the Clevelander, a legendary South Beach bar bearing no resemblance to anything that has ever existed in Cleveland. On a small stage next to the packed bar a woman wearing a basically invisible bikini was writhing to inhumanly loud pounding music. Nearby, beneath a sign that said D.J. BOOGA WOOGA was a man wearing black lace-up boots and a purple thong held up by orange suspenders. He was shouting into a microphone: “LAST CALL FOR THE MISS HOT AMATEUR BOD CONTEST! LADIES COME ON UP! FIRST PRIZE IS ONE HUNDRED DOLLARS! COME ON LADIES! LET’S SEE WHAT YOU GOT!”

Standing near the DJ were a dozen young women wearing garments that, if all of them were combined, might have provided enough fabric to make a sock.

“We should stop here,” said Kevin.

“No we shouldn’t,” said Seth. “We need to get to the Ritz.”

“We can’t get to the Ritz,” said Kevin. “Admit it. We tried, and we failed.”

“Plus,” said Marty, “they don’t have Miss Hot Amateur Bod at the Ritz, not to mention D.J. Booga Wooga.”

Seth looked back out at Ocean Drive. Still no taxis.

“Maybe there’s a bus to Key Biscayne,” said Big Steve.

“Shut up, Steve,” said Kevin.

“Come on, Seth,” said Marty. “One drink.”

“OK,” said Seth, dragging his suitcase toward the bar. “One drink.”

* * *

Three hours later, they were on their fifth pitcher of margaritas. The pitchers were $50 apiece, plus a generous tip for Vicki the bartender, with whom Kevin had fallen deeply in love. Kevin was also in love with Cyndi Friend Gonzalez, an outgoing young woman who had finished fourth in the Miss Hot Amateur Bod competition, and who was wearing a dress made from roughly one square inch of some extremely stretchy material. At Kevin’s invitation, Cyndi had joined the Groom Posse at the bar; she had in turn been joined by a friend of hers, a large bald man named Duane.

The posse was not thrilled about Duane, but nobody told him to leave, because in addition to being large, he had an 11-foot Burmese albino python named Blossom draped over his shoulders. Duane made his living collecting tips from tourists who wanted to have their pictures taken with Blossom. He’d been doing this for eight years and considered himself a professional. He also considered himself an ambassador for Miami, and upon learning that Seth was about to get married, he had appointed himself as tour guide.

“This is my town,” he said. “ ¿Se hablo españolo? You need weed? Oxy?”

“I think we’re good,” said Seth.

Duane brandished Blossom. “You want to hold her? No charge for the groom, man.”

“Maybe later,” said Seth, leaning back to avoid Blossom’s flicking tongue.

“Just say the word,” said Duane, pouring Seth and himself another glass from the pitcher, finishing it. Kevin waved to Vicki for another.

The Clevelander was now very crowded and making far more noise than the entire state of Nebraska. The sea-salted night air was warm and sticky and thick with the aromas of spilled beer and cigar smoke and Axe body spray and billowing clouds of do-me perfume worn by women who were not wearing a whole lot else. Seth was staring at one of these women, wondering how she sat down in that dress and hoping she would attempt to do so soon, when he realized that Big Steve was shouting something into his ear, trying to be heard over the all-obliterating boom-boom issuing from the coffin-sized speakers of D.J. Booga Wooga.

“WHAT?” said Seth.

“THE HOTEL!” said Big Steve. He held up his phone so Seth could see the time: 9:30. Seth frowned. He swiveled toward Marty, grabbing the bar to keep from falling off the stool.

“MARTY.”

“WHAT?”

“WE NEED TO GET TO THE HOTEL!”

“WHAT?”

“THE HOTEL!”

Marty frowned deeply for several seconds, processing this concept, then said, “WHAT?”

“Never mind,” said Seth. Realizing it was time to take matters into his own hands, he turned away from Marty and slid smoothly off the stool. He continued sliding smoothly until he found himself on all fours under the bar. He decided to remain that way for a bit, collecting his thoughts.

He’d been down there a while and had yet to collect any when he became vaguely aware of voices shouting above him in the thumping din. He heard his name, and realized that the voices belonged to Marty, Big Steve and Kevin, who, apparently unaware that he was under the bar, were trying to figure out where he was.

“Hey!” said Seth. “Down here!”

They didn’t hear him. Their voices were louder now, and more concerned.

“Hey!” Seth repeated, again going unheard. He thought about attempting to stand up, but at the moment that didn’t seem to be a good idea, or even possible. He decided to collect his thoughts some more and soon fell asleep with his back against the bar.

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Adorable Tots: Celebs and their Cute Kids!

Jessica Simpson

They grow up so fast! Jessica Simpson shared an adorable pic of her daughter Maxwell standing up on Feb. 1, 2013, tweeting: "My lil dollface is 9 months today!"

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Deadly deserts

Ralph Peters

Violence in Allah’s name in northern Africa won’t end in my lifetime — and probably not in yours. The core question is: To what extent can the savagery be contained?

From the Atlantic coastline to the Suez Canal, struggling governments, impoverished populations and frankly backward societies struggle to find paths to modernization and to compete in a ruthless global economy. Religious fanatics for whom progress is a betrayal of faith hope to block development.

Still, if the only conflict was between Islamist terrorists and those who want civilized lives, the situation could be managed over time. But that struggle forms only one level in a layer cake of clashing visions and outright civil wars bedeviling a vast region. Much larger than Europe, the zone of contention encompasses the Maghreb, the countries touching the Mediterranean, and the Sahel, the bitterly poor states stretching down across desert wastes to the African savannah.

AFP/Getty Images

Figthers of the Islamic group Ansar Dine

The Sahel is the front line not only between the world of Islam and Christian-animist cultures in Africa’s heart, but between Arabs and light-skinned tribes in the north, and blacks to the south. No area in the world so explicitly illustrates the late, great Samuel Huntington’s concept of “the clash of civilizations.”

If racial and religious differences were not challenge enough, in the Maghreb the factions and interest groups are still more complicated. We view Egypt as locked in a contest between Islamists and “our guys,” Egyptians seeking new freedoms. But Egypt’s identity struggle is far more complex, involving social liberals, moderate Muslims, stern conservative Muslims (such as the Muslim Brotherhood) and outright fanatics. The military forms another constituency, while the business community defends its selfish interests. Then there are the supporters of the old Mubarak regime, the masses of educated-but-unemployed youth and the bitterly poor peasants.

Atop all that there’s the question of whether the values cherished by Arab societies can adapt to a globalized world.

The path to Egypt’s future will not be smooth — yet Egypt’s chances are better than those of many of its neighbors. Consider a few key countries in the region:

Mali

Viva la France! (Never thought I’d write that in The Post.) Contrary to a lot of media nonsense, the effective French intervention in Mali demonstrates that not every military response to Islamist terror has to become another Afghanistan: The French are welcome.

As extremists invariably do, al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and its allies rapidly alienated their fellow Muslims — after hijacking a local uprising. The local version of Islam is far more humane and tolerant than the Wahhabi cult imposed by Islamist fanatics. To the foreign extremists, the Malian love of Sufi mysticism, ancient shrines and their own centuries of religious scholarship are all hateful — as is the Malian genius for music that’s pleased listeners around the world.

Have a comment on this PostOpinion column? Send it in to LETTERS@NYPOST.COM!

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Hollywood cardiologist’s ties with St. Jude sales rep raises red flags

Mark Sabbota, a Hollywood cardiologist, regularly implants $5,000 pacemakers in patients at Memorial hospitals in South Broward — generating, last year alone, more than a half-million dollars in sales for a manufacturer called St. Jude Medical.

Sabbota, public records show, also happens to be partners with a St. Jude sales rep in two corporations that run frozen yogurt shops.

What’s yogurt got to do with healthcare?

Perhaps nothing. Perhaps a lot. The question is connected to an on-going lobbying battle in Washington over a pending disclosure policy intended to more clearly reveal financial ties between physicians and the healthcare industry — often-murky relationships that have produced a long history of whistle-blower lawsuits, federal investigations and fines.

Sabbota, in a brief interview, adamantly denied any conflict of interest. “There has been no wrongdoing at all,” he said.

Memorial spokeswoman Kerting Baldwin also said the hospital saw no problem with the yogurt arrangement. As a “community” doctor, not a staff employee, Baldwin said Sabbota can select from a list of pacemakers approved by the hospital but has no say over what companies made the list.

“As for why he prefers to use St. Jude, I won’t speak for him,’’ she said. “You’d have to ask him that.”

But several medical ethics experts said such relationships fall in a gray area. They raise what Kenneth Goodman, bioethics director at the University of Miami, called “red flags” about whether the doctor’s motivation in choosing a device “is something other than the best interests of the patient.”

“Maybe it’s just a good business arrangement that has nothing to do with the devices he chooses,” said Charles D. Rosen, a California physician who is co-founder of the Association for Medical Ethics. “But the issue is public disclosure and transparency. You as a patient should have the right to know about a doctor’s financial relationships with companies.”

Concerns about the relationship between doctors and healthcare companies have been simmering for years. Americans are so suspicious of doctors’ connections that, in a 2008 Pew Charitable Trusts survey, 86 percent of patients said doctors should not be allowed to get free dinners from drug makers and 70 percent said doctors shouldn’t even be allowed to get free notepads and pens.

The 2010 Affordable Care Act includes a provision intended to address some aspects of these often-cozy relationships. Starting Jan. 1, healthcare companies were supposed to publicly post how much they were paying doctors. But that provision has been held up in the White House by intense lobbying.

“I don’t know why the hold-up, except the intense opposition of the industry,” Rosen said. His group, including members of the Harvard Medical School and Cleveland Clinic, wrote a letter to the Obama administration last month protesting the delay.

The group complains that the healthcare industry is trying to soften the rules so that foreign subsidiaries and doctors engaged in clinical trials wouldn’t have to reveal payments. But even if the disclosure rules are implemented, a side deal like Sabbota’s yogurt company would not have to be revealed under the new law, Rosen said.

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At University of Miami, Justice Sonia Sotomayor gets real

From her days as a young girl in the Bronx being raised by her mother after the death of her father to becoming the first Hispanic on the highest judicial body in the country, U.S. Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor told the story of her journey before a captivated audience at the University of Miami on Friday night.

Sotomayor spoke with University of Miami President Donna E. Shalala at the BankUnited Center to University of Miami students, Coral Gables residents and perhaps a future Supreme Court justice about the inspiration behind her recently published memoir My Beloved World.

“Love and passion, that is the only way you do something well,” Sotomayor said. “Do a few things, but do them well.”

Sotomayor, 58, spoke of the many things that inspired her to share her story with the world, one of which was in responses to questions she hadn’t expected during her confirmation process, such as how children cope when a parent dies, especially if they don’t have a mother like hers.

“I began to understand that I couldn’t talk to every child in the country,” Sotomayor said. “I could give them the answers in a book.”

One child she did embrace and speak with on Friday evening was a young girl in the audience named Madeline. Madeline, who was introduced by Shalala, and Sotomayor turned out to have one thing in common: a love for Nancy Drew.

Sotomayor credits the lessons she learned from the fictional tales of a young girl detective as one of the motivations for her successful career.

“When she [Nancy Drew] was trying to solve people’s problems,” Sotomayor told Madeline, “she was trying to help people.”

“I think too many young lawyers forget that the law is the noblest profession you can enter,” Sotomayor said. “What you do is helping people.”

When asked what other profession she would have ever considered going into, Sotomayor said there was not one. “This fish found her pond, and she ain’t changing it,” Sotomayor said.

Shalala questioned Sotomayor about her life as a diabetic, which her memoir speaks of at great length.

“If you have diabetes and want to live a full life, you figure out how to have both things,” Sotomayor said.

She was diagnosed with juvenile diabetes at 8 and she credits living with the chronic illness with teaching her discipline. “Every moment of every day I am self-monitoring inside,” Sotomayor said.

That constant discipline, she said, teaches you to do things like monitoring diet, something she feels everybody should do.

With many students in the audience, she was asked about her scariest experience in law school.

“Being there,” Sotomayor chuckled. “If you think you are smart in college, you realize how dumb you are.”

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Brandi Glanville Talks Plastic Surgery and Says She's Done Talking About Eddie Cibrian and LeAnn Rimes

Brandi Glanville's new tell-all, Drinking and Tweeting: And Other Brandi Blunders, is chock-full of juicy stories about her ex husband Eddie Cibrian, but The Real Housewives of Beverly Hills star says that after promotion wraps on the book, she will no longer speak out about the actor and his wife LeAnn Rimes.

Pics: LeAnn Rimes Defends Self with Teeny Weeny Bikini Photos

"As soon the book tour is over, I'm done. I'm not gonna be talking about them publicly," vows Brandi of the topic that has gotten her into a bit of trouble in the past. "I won't be answering questions about them publicly, this is my final chapter. This is all my side of the story is in the book and then I'm done."

As Brandi's book tour has yet to conclude, Eddie is still fair game.

In Drinking and Tweeting, out February 12, Brandi reveals that she took revenge on her ex by sticking him with a $12,000 credit card bill for vaginal rejuvenation surgery after finding out about his extra-marital affair with LeAnn.

Related: LeAnn Rimes On Twitter War with Brandi Glanville

Now swearing off invasive surgeries, Brandi has found more inventive ways to look young. Instead, the RHOBH star has opted for a visit to Beverly Hills dermatologist Dr. Simon Ourian to get cosmetic fillers injected into her hands, which she says are starting to look "old."

Watch the video to follow Brandi during the procedure!

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Elderly SI man fatally struck while crossing the street near his home

An elderly man was struck and killed crossing the street near his home in Staten Island, police said.

Bujar Hasimja, 72, and a woman, 64, were walking across Jefferson Avenue near Mason Avenue in Dongan Hills when a gray Nissan Armada making a left turn hit them about 7:30 p.m. yesterday, cops said.

EMS rushed the two pedestrians to Staten Island University Hospital, but Hasimja did not survive, authorities said. The woman was listed in stable condition.

The driver stayed on the scene, and no criminality is suspected, police added.

Hasimja lived near the scene of the accident.

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Healthcare experts see bumpy road ahead: “Shift happens”

The healthcare industry in South Florida, like the rest of the country, faces huge challenges in the year ahead as major federal reforms kick in, experts told about 700 people at a University of Miami conference on Friday.

“We are at a critical time in health policy,” said Mark McClellan, former head of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. “There are going to be some bumps along the way,” especially starting in 11 months, when the biggest changes in the Affordable Care Act kick in.

“Bumps may be understating what we may go through,” said Patrick Geraghty, chief executive of Florida Blue, the state’s largest health insurer.

They spoke at the conference on the Business of Healthcare Post-Election. The speakers accepted the federal reforms — often referred to as Obamacare — as not only inevitable but necessary. As Tom Daschele, a former Democratic U.S. senator from South Dakota, put it, “having 50 million uninsured is just unacceptable.”

But the reform act, signed into law in 2010, contains more than 2,000 pages, plus thousands of pages more of enabling regulations — details that will have major, and perhaps unexpected, impacts on the healthcare industry, which now makes up almost 20 percent of the nation’s economy.

In October, insurance exchanges will open for enrollment — groups that will allow individuals and small businesses to purchase policies with no exclusions for pre-existing conditions. Starting next January, virtually everyone will be required to have insurance, Medicaid will expand in many states, and businesses with more than 50 full-time equivalent employees will be required to provide insurance or pay fines.

“Jan. 1 is a very significant date,” said Steven Ulllmann, director of health policy programs at the UM business school. He called reforms “a process” that will change over time.

“The one thing we know is that healthcare reform will be reformed,” said Chris Jennings, a Washington health policy advisor for the Clinton administration and three senators.

Karen Ignagni, president of America’s Health Insurance Plans, the insurers’ trade group, said she had strong ideas about tweaks that could minimize disruption. One arcane, but crucial provision of the law requires that an older person’s policy can be no more than three times as expensive as a young person’s.

The provision will mean huge increases in the policies of younger persons, to pay for the much higher costs of their elders. Insurers are asking for that policy to be postponed for two years, retaining the present maximum spread of about five to one, so that younger people could sign up for insurance without huge sticker shock.

For example, if a 25-year-old pays $100 and a 60-year-old pays $500, the new rule would hike the younger person’s premium to $150 and cut the older person’s premium to $450 — a 50 percent increase for one and a 10 percent decrease for the other.

The thinking of lawmakers was that by lowering ratio, the costs of healthcare would be spread out and shared more equally by the population.

Anne Phelps, a healthcare principal with Ernst & Young, said she favored another change in the law, which now requires that next year a company with the equivalent of 50 employees to provide insurance for anyone working more than 30 hours a week or pay a fine. She thought the threshold should be raised to 32 or 34 hours.

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Feral cats to be trapped at federal wildlife refuges in Florida Keys

Efforts to protect native animals in Florida Keys wildlife refuges will trap feral cats and other unwanted "pests," say federal managers.

The "Final Integrated Pest Management Plan" for the Florida Keys National Wildlife Refuges, released this week, says U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service staff "will begin actively controlling and removing certain exotic animals from public lands within these refuges."

That includes national wildlife lands at Crocodile Lake on North Key Largo, National Key Deer Refuge based on Big Pine Key, and the Great White Heron and Key West refuges in the Lower Keys.

"They've been talking about this for several years but this is the first we've heard that they're actually going to begin implementation," said Jerry Dykhuisen, an officer of Forgotten Felines, a cat-rescue group in the Middle and Lower Keys.

Forgotten Felines and several other national animal groups oppose trapping feral cats, which often are considered unadoptable and put to death.

A number of conservation groups including the Sierra Club, National Wildlife Federation and the American Bird Conservancy support the plan, saying birds and local endangered species have few defenses against predatory cats that do not belong in Keys wild areas.

"In terms of influencing the Lower Keys marsh rabbit or Key Largo woodrats chance of persisting, the significance of cat predation exceeds other threats," says the management plan. "Cats impact a remarkable proportion of species in affected communities."

White-crowned pigeons and many other protected bird species "depend upon Keys habitats to sustain them before and after long, over-water migrations," said Audubon Florida's Julie Wraithmell in an FWS statement. "This management plan helps ensure a future for these species in the Florida Keys."

Phillip Hughes, an FWS biologist and acting manager at the Key Deer refuge, said the agency will not mount a large-scale trapping program, but will place traps in known areas where cats and wildlife may come together.

Cats captured will be taken to local animal shelters where staff "can use their expertise regard final disposition of the cats..."

That could include trying to place the cats with "responsible pet owners or placement in long-term cat care facilities on the mainland."

The county-contracted shelter closest to Big Pine Key is based in Marathon.

"When they were talking about this before, there was a no-kill shelter on Big Pine where people could go to get their pets back," Dykhuisen said. "Now there's no shelter at all, so that's a complicating factor."

Iguanas, also considered an unwanted exotic species that eats plants needed by native wildlife, also could be targeted under the plan.

When the draft Pest Management Plan was published in late 2010, the Fish and Wildlife Service received 9,614 comments. The final plan says "over 99 percent" of those were "Internet-generated letters with standard comments."

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